The desire to predict the complex WSS random process based on the sample
![x[n-1]](https://lysario.de/wp-content/cache/tex_f14c06cc1753ec7fe07c98dd3f429390.png)
by using a linear predictor
is expressed in
[1, p. 61 exercise 3.10].
It is asked to chose

to minimize the MSE or prediction error power
We are asked to find the optimal prediction parameter

and the minimum prediction error power by using the orthogonality principle.
Solution:
Using the orthogonality principle
[1, p.51, eq. 3.38] for the estimation of
![x[n]](https://lysario.de/wp-content/cache/tex_d3baaa3204e2a03ef9528a7d631a4806.png)
translates into finding the

for which the observed data
![x[n-1]](https://lysario.de/wp-content/cache/tex_f14c06cc1753ec7fe07c98dd3f429390.png)
will be normal to the error
Considering (
3), the mean squared error can be written as:
This result can also be obtained by the equations
[1, eq. 3.36, eq. 3.37]. They provide the solution for the optimal prediction parameter of a linear predictor

, that minimizes the MSE and the minimum MSE. Note that in the book

is used instead of

and

instead of
![r_{\theta \theta}[0]](https://lysario.de/wp-content/cache/tex_c0219a326d69241fe834eb6473323994.png)
and
![r_{xx}[0]](https://lysario.de/wp-content/cache/tex_92c5630642b279858745d05d4097b3fc.png)
. This is only correct for a zero mean random process
![x[n]](https://lysario.de/wp-content/cache/tex_d3baaa3204e2a03ef9528a7d631a4806.png)
, as it is assumed in the derivation of the formula in the book. The formula for the optimal coefficients is thus:
The minimum MSE is for a general signal
![x[n]](https://lysario.de/wp-content/cache/tex_d3baaa3204e2a03ef9528a7d631a4806.png)
is equal to:
Translating the formulas to the notation of the exercise, we obtain
![\theta =x[n]](https://lysario.de/wp-content/cache/tex_ebceea97dfa3ecda473bc59100754274.png)
,
![\mathbf{x}=x[n-1]](https://lysario.de/wp-content/cache/tex_fe89bc16cb2f5f0ba3baf853dd3118a7.png)
,

and
![\mathbf{r}_{\theta x}=E\left\{\mathbf{x}\theta^{H}\right\}=E\left\{x^{\ast}[n]x[n-1]\right\}=r_{xx}[-1]](https://lysario.de/wp-content/cache/tex_fea96e545397b9f1724990fedcc117e0.png)
,
![\mathbf{R}_{xx}=E\left\{ x^{\ast}[n-1]x[n-1]\right\}=r_{xx}[0]](https://lysario.de/wp-content/cache/tex_b0865d4540df90fe1b90e211dd8a9da5.png)
and for a zero mean process
![r_{xx}[0]=\sigma_{\theta}^{2}=\sigma_{x}^{2}](https://lysario.de/wp-content/cache/tex_23b9fa5525a8d3c398f88495687c81bb.png)
.
The optimal prediction parameter

is thus given by:
while the minimum MSE is given by:
Which is equal to the solution that was obtained using the orthogonality principle (
4).
[1] Steven M. Kay: “Modern Spectral Estimation – Theory and Applications”, Prentice Hall, ISBN: 0-13-598582-X.
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